Aviation Sector Outlook for 2020 and the Dream for a National Carrier

-By Adeniyi Onifade

Nigeria’s aviation sector in 2019 had its own fair share of criticisms with regards to safety and staff welfare.

While many stakeholders are still hopeful that the aviation development masterplan would materialise four years after it’s introduction, however the prospects still remain low compared to the pronouncement made by government on the sector.

Specifically, stakeholders are seeking clear-cut policies to support investments through enabling environment, strategic incentives and modalities, continuous commitment to upgrade and improvement of safety critical infrastructure and other palliative measures across the board.

These, among others, will not only fill the void of waiting for transformation, but also consolidate on marginal gains amid the letdown of 2019.

Safety issues
One of the priceless gains of 2019 was the zero-crash recorded in commercial operations. The industry, to date, has the enviable record of four-year operations without a major accident.

Comparatively, it was a good year for local aviation given general concerns about safer skies as led by the Boeing 737 Max disastrous episode early in the year.

The second plane crash in Ethiopia claimed two Nigerians – Prof. Pius Adesanmi and Amb. Bashua – with 155 others, and has since thrown the entire Max model and Boeing Corporation into disarray.

Besides, the local aviation industry with an upswing in flight services recorded more nervy moments onboard the airplanes of Air Peace, Arik Air, Max Air, Med-View Airlines PLC, among others.

It was the year of attempted runway invasions as well. However, none resulted in casualty, much to the credit of the operators, service providers and their regulators.

A particular standout regulatory performer is the Accident Investigation Bureau (AIB).

It will be recalled that the bureau, since January 2017, has deepened efficiency leading to the release of 26 final reports, 93 recommendations and four Safety bulletins to date.

Relatively, the output was far better than the bureau had done since it was established in 2007.

The AIB Commissioner, Akin Olateru, often said that the renewed commitment was part of efforts to clear the backlog of pending accident investigation reports and have attendant recommendations implemented to further enhance safety in the industry.

Local airline improved fortunes
Aside Med-View Airlines PLC which had stopped commercial operations since the fourth quarter of 2019, the eight local airlines currently in operation showed stability in operation, including the new entrant, Ibom Air, showing growth potential across their niche markets.

With a boost in capacity via aircraft acquisition, airlines like Dana Air, Arik Air, Azman Air, Aero Contractors, Max Air, and Ibom Air have expanded operations into routes that were not accessible for improved connectivity across the country.

Air Peace airlines, with about 40 per cent stake in local aviation, showed more strength with newer investments in fleet acquisition and expanded route network.

Recall that the airline some months ago set a continental record with a firm order for 10 brand new Embraer 195-E2 aircraft.

The deal makes Air Peace the first to order the brand of jets in Africa. The order comprises purchase rights for another 20 E195-E2 jets.

With all purchase rights exercised, the contract was valued at N646.6 billion.

However, money laundry allegations by the United States authorities against the Air Peace Chairman Allen Onyeama has lately taken the wind out of the airline’s sail. The accused have vowed to prove their innocence in 2020.

Dream for National Carrier
Experts have said that the most remarkable disappointment of the year 2019 had to be the aviation Minister, Hadi Sirika and his national carrier plan as they believe that many barriers will stop the anticipated plans to set up a national carrier in his second-coming.

Stakeholders also express displeasure that the minister has not delivered significantly to the aviation sector.

Many believe that his aviation background is an asset, adding that he is the longest serving aviation minister with enormous goodwill from all and sundry in a rather combative sector.

Similarly, it is said that policies and adequate preparations were not put in place before the idea of “Nigeria Air” began.

“It is more painful to see other African countries reviving national carriers for real, more than a year after we launched ours on a projector at the London airshow. An airline is not a rocket science and Sirika should know better. In 2018, the issue was non-budgetary provision, same as 2019.

“There is more the minister should do for our sector than just sit at the cabinet as one of the untouchable president’s men,” a stakeholder said at an aviation event.

Experts speak on 2020 outlook
The disappointment notwithstanding, experts are unrelenting in their call for a national carrier, among others the minister had promised.

Aviation Security consultant, Group Capt. John Ojikutu (rtd) said the carrier was imperative to effectively compete with foreign airlines on the continental and the intercontinental routes.

But in the interim and to grow the local sector, Ojikutu advised that in the place of multiple destinations each of the foreign airlines should be restricted to either Lagos or Abuja, and anyone or two from alternate regions to the airport of the first choice.

“These arrangements will create a market for domestic airlines. The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) must upgrade the dormant and not too active airports for night flights to improve the domestic airline’s markets and earnings.

“Also, they should grade the airports into four categories where the grade one (Lagos and Abuja) would charge higher service fees than grade B, and B higher than C, and D may charge no fees to encourage patronage.

“Airport concession is a global practice and we must do it only with the nonaeronautical facilities like the passenger terminal and cargo buildings, aircraft parking areas, carparks, toll gates, operators or tenants restricted used areas, and so on.

“The aeronautical, which includes the runways, taxiways, and associated lightings should remain with FAAN so as to maintain the national obligations to the intercontinental safety standards as FAAN becomes a holding company.

“Domestic airlines should plan to operate in all the airports, if facilities are improved for night flying and service fees are reduced.

The Aviation Security should be excised from FAAN and made autonomous. To be able to conform sufficiently with Chapter one of ICAO Annex 17, ensure that single command and control is established from the autonomous agency for all government security agencies working in the airports. That is what the USA TSA at all airports is about,” Ojikutu said.

Also, an aviation expert Chidi Nweke, has tasked the government on the need to begin to pay attention to critical infrastructure as it is the only way the sector will witness significant improvement.

“Government should begin to improve the facility at the airports, expand the operating hours, and reduce the cost of operation at the airports that are not viable to attract services to them. They just need to concentrate on these safety and security requirements, and leave the airlines to the operations. That way, the industry will show progress and live up to its potential.

“I am not an advocate of government giving airlines bailout again, but having the infrastructure in place and the enabling environment.

“Government can also help with the availability of aviation fuel, if they can bring down the cost to improve services of the local airlines,” he said.