By Gideon Osaka
The recent multiple collapses of the electricity grid have continued to generate tremendous concern in the country, even as the government and relevant stakeholders continue to scramble for solutions.
The collapse of the grid, twice in a single week in early November, which took the number of such incidents in 2024 to 11, sparked wide reactions locally and internationally as millions of homes and businesses suffered blackouts and resultant losses and pains.
Nigeria’s power grid, according to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), is a vast network of electrical transmission lines that link power stations to end-use customers across the country and it is designed to function within specific stability boundaries, including voltage (330kV ± 5.0 per cent) and frequency (50Hz ± 0.5 per cent).
“Any deviation from these stability ranges can result in decreased power quality and, in severe cases, cause widespread power outages ranging from a partial collapse of a section of the grid to a full system collapse.
“When the electricity demand is higher than the supply, the grid frequency drops. Conversely, if supply surpasses demand, the frequency increases. In reaction to the grid operating at a frequency outside of the normal operation range (especially when the frequency is too low), safety settings on generation units may cause the units to shut down.
“This often exacerbates the frequency imbalance on the grid thereby causing more generation units to shut down resulting in a full or partial system collapse,” the regulator explained.
Valuechain reports that each time the grid collapses, the majority of electricity consumers are thrown into darkness, affecting businesses and social activities.
Nigeria’s national grid has become synonymous with instability, experiencing 162 cases of grid collapse from 2013 to date, according to the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), the umbrella body of all electricity generating firms in Nigeria (GenCos).
The collapse of the grid twice in a single week in November highlighted the system’s fragility with such collapses having severe economic setbacks, estimated to reduce Nigeria’s GDP by up to $29 billion annually, according to the World Bank.
Commenting on the impact the incessant grid collapse was having on the commercial side of the GenCos operation, the Chief Executive Officer of APGC, Dr. Joy Ogaji, revealed in a statement that the frequent grid collapse leads to a substantial impact on GenCos cash flow and financial stability.
“For instance, GenCos in Nigeria are currently grappling with a debt of approximately N2.5 trillion. This debt burden is exacerbated by the inability to consistently generate and sell power,” Ogaji said.
She maintained that the grid collapse also leads to an increase in GenCos operational costs, explaining that the need for frequent repairs and replacements of damaged equipment further strains their finances adding that the issue also poses a technical risk to Gencos.
Quest for solution
Nigeria’s grid infrastructure, managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), reportedly struggles with three key issues: One of them is overcapacity, as the grid is said to be designed for a maximum load of about 5,000 MW (megawatts), yet peak demand exceeds 30,000 MW. This overloading leads to frequent technical breakdowns. Secondly, is the challenge of ageing infrastructure. Transmission lines, transformers, and substations are decades old, with little modernisation. Lastly, the weak links between power generation, transmission, and distribution create a fragile system where a fault in one segment often cascades into total failure.
Worried over the escalating cases of grid disturbances, the government and critical stakeholders in the sector have initiated some measures to arrest the situation.
More recently, the National Economic Council (NEC) on Thursday, November 19, 2024, announced the formation of the National Electrification Strategy at the end of its 146th meeting, chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima. The committee, to be led by Cross River State Governor, Bassey Otu, is tasked with among others, the mandate to address immediate concerns around grid collapse.
Prior to that time, the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, had constituted a six-member Committee to advise the federal government on necessary solutions to make the national grid robust and reliable. The six-member committee which included executives from the Independent System Operator (ISO), NERC and the National Control Centre (NCC) was given nine days to proffer solutions and present a report by November 1, 2024.
While submitting its report two weeks later to the minister who ordered the immediate implementation of the committee’s recommendations, the committee recommended the audit and testing of existing equipment and improvement in the maintenance of the transmission equipment and lines. Among other recommendations, the committee urged a developing framework to attract private investment across the value chain, deployment of IT devices on generating units and transmission lines, and securitisation of gas contracts. It also called for the development and implementation of measures to combat vandalism and energy theft. Also in pursuit of a permanent solution, NERC held an investigative public hearing to identify immediate and remote causes.
The argument for a decentralised energy solution
While the government continues to tinker over long-term solutions to ceaseless grid collapses, grid decentralisation has been identified as the best possible direction for Nigeria to achieve reliable electricity.
While most large countries operate regional and embedded grids, Nigeria is said to be one of the very few countries that operate national grids where all generated power must first be fed into the national grid and transmitted through a single switchboard to the rest of the country. For instance, the USA is said to have 6,900 power plants, all independently owned with four national grids having a total daily generation of 1 million MW. China Mainland has 8 regional grids and generates 1.7millionMW.
The glaring challenges with a centralized national grid have heightened the call for decentralization of the grid as the long-term solution to the current problem. Decentralized energy systems—localized, small-scale energy generation—are emerging as a solution to grid failures. These systems can complement the national grid or function independently, providing tailored power solutions for specific communities or businesses.
According to information sourced by Valuechain, some of the key benefits of decentralised systems are the reduction in outages and guaranteed energy access for all. In terms of cost efficiency, a decentralized grid solution over time will become more affordable with attendant environmental benefits.
Weighing in on the repeated grid collapse, the causes, impact as well as the solution, the Lead Consultant on Power to the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) and Chief Executive Officer of New Hampshire Limited Mr. Odion Omonfoman, argued in favour of the adoption of a decentralized grid system which he said allows state governments to also participate in providing distributed generation.
Speaking in a recent media interview, Omonfoman said the whole idea of everybody getting connected to the national grid was ridiculous, considering the country’s vast nature, which does not support a grid system that is not reinforced.
Omonfoman explained, “We cannot run a national grid with the level of insecurity we have because we are already seeing that bandits and contractors are targeting the national grid. It’s not only bandits.
“Contractors are actually targeting it so that they can get more contracts. That’s what’s going on with the national grid which is now becoming a cash cow for contractors.”
He argued that it was impossible to have energy reliability under a single grid that is more vulnerable to the kind of incessant breakdowns being witnessed in the country.
He stressed the importance of states creating their own electricity market where they could get the supplier side of the national grid and have a number of energy sources to apply.
“This whole essence of generating and putting on a national grid that is at best epileptic is ridiculous.
“So, my solution is that there is no point trying to throw so much money at this national grid. Let’s look at other sources. Let’s look at distributed generation sources. Let’s look at states attracting investment into the electricity market, bringing generation sources closer to the end users,” he pointed out.
Omonfoman’s position is similar to that of the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, whose perspective is that there was a need to have power grids in different regions or states to put an end to the incessant grid collapses. According to the minister, grid collapses were almost inevitable in Nigeria given the deplorable state of the country’s power infrastructure.
“We keep talking about grid collapse. Grid collapse, grid collapse, whether it’s a total collapse, partial collapse, or slight trip-off. This is almost inevitable as it is today, given the state of our power infrastructure, the infrastructure is in deplorable conditions, so why won’t you have trip-offs? Why won’t you have collapses, either total or partial? It will continue to remain like this until we can overhaul the entire infrastructure. What we do now is to make sure that we manage it,” he said at a recent industry event in Abuja.
Prof. Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, stresses the need to diversify Nigeria’s energy mix. “The national grid is too centralised and vulnerable to collapses,” he said. “Decentralized energy is the future, especially in a country with abundant solar and biomass resources.”
The Executive Director, Research and Advocacy of the Nigerian Association of Energy Distributor Barr. Sunday Oduntan in a WhatsApp post on the subject matter agreed that what the country needs is a radical mixture of modernisation, distributed energy delivery, and not reliance on the obsolete grid design.
“We also need sustained investment in the gas upstream, midstream and downstream to make gas available. This will then be superimposed with sustained investment in power generation transmission and distribution. We need to have a comprehensive energy policy that incorporates all sources available to Nigeria (thermal, hydro, nuclear, renewable of solar, wind etc).”
Success stories of decentralised energy deployment
According to experts, decentralised systems can accommodate diverse energy sources, including renewables (e.g., solar, wind), allowing for a more flexible and adaptable energy mix. The plethora of existing cases shows the huge decentralised energy potential if replicated widely.
Gbamu-Gbamu Community, located in Ogun State, is a shining example of decentralised energy’s potential. In 2018, the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and private firm Rubitec Solar deployed a solar hybrid mini-grid that generates 85 kW, providing reliable electricity to over 500 residents and businesses. This system has reduced reliance on costly generators, enabled small businesses to thrive, and improved the quality of life in the community.
In Kano, Nigeria’s second-largest city, the Sabon Gari Market now benefits from a decentralised energy solution powered by natural gas. Independent Power Producers (IPPs) installed a localised power system to support the market’s 20,000 shops. Traders no longer rely on diesel generators, leading to lower costs and a cleaner environment.
In Katsina State, the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) has deployed solar mini-grids in off-grid communities like Rimi. This project provides electricity to over 1,000 households and small businesses, enabling economic activities like welding, tailoring, and cold storage for agricultural produce. Residents now enjoy consistent power, reducing dependence on costly and polluting generators.
In Wuna, a rural community near Abuja, the Nigeria Electrification Project (NEP) launched a 90 kW solar mini-grid, electrifying homes, schools, and a health clinic. The project has not only enhanced healthcare delivery but also allowed small-scale farmers to use electric water pumps for irrigation, boosting agricultural productivity.
In Ekiti State, the Ikun Dairy Farm exemplifies the potential of decentralised energy. The farm uses a solar hybrid system to power its operations, reducing its reliance on the national grid and diesel generators. With consistent energy, the dairy farm has scaled production to supply milk to local communities, creating jobs and boosting local agriculture.
In Lagos, partnerships between the Egbin Power Plant and independent power producers are transforming energy access for industrial zones. By decentralizing supply and focusing on localized distribution, Lagos is addressing power shortages in critical economic areas, attracting more investors to the state.
Despite its promise, decentralized energy faces significant barriers particularly the high initial costs of installing solar panels or microgrid systems which require upfront investment that many communities cannot afford. Again, Nigeria’s energy regulations often favour large-scale operators, leaving decentralized providers grappling with unclear or restrictive policies. Another challenge is that many Nigerians are unaware of the benefits of decentralised energy or view it as unaffordable.
However, in the long run, decentralised energy systems offer a transformative solution, enabling reliable, affordable, and sustainable power for millions. By diversifying its energy approach and investing in innovation, Nigeria can break free from the cycle of grid collapses and power a brighter future.