By Adeniyi Onifade
Amidst concerns over the third wave of COVID-19 and restrictions of flights to some parts of Europe and Asia, there is something to cheer as the forecast has shown that the aviation sector is set to recover soon.
This is just as global aviation has estimated that aviation will make a full rebound return to pre-COVID-19 passenger traffic demand by 2023.
The rationale from the projection was based on the current recovery trend in air travel, coupled with the progress made in sustainable measures on vaccination and testing to reduce travel restrictions across countries.
The forecast, recently released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Tourism Economics, showed that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term.
To ensure that aviation can sustainably deliver its social and economic benefits as it meets this long-term demand, “it is critical that governments step up their support for more efficient operations, and foster an effective energy transition.”
Already, Europe and more than 20 countries have wholly or partially lifted travel restrictions for vaccine passport holders ahead of the summer travels.
The prediction forecasts that the 2021 global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019). In 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels, and 105 per cent by 2023.
By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be seven per cent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of two to three years of growth due to COVID-19.
Beyond 2030, air travel is expected to slow due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalisation, given average yearly growth of 3.2 per cent between 2019 and 2039. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8 per cent.
IATA’s Director-General, Willie Walsh, speaking on the report, expressed belief that the sector remains very optimistic but needed governments’ support.
“We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel.
“The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates. At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability. Both challenges require governments and industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough.
“Stakeholders reckoned that the damage of the COVID-19 crisis would be felt for years to come, but all indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel.
“Any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings. The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
“Vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50 per cent of the population by the third quarter of 2021,” Walsh said.
Meanwhile, one of Nigeria’s blazing indigenous carriers, Air Peace, has confirmed that it will soon commence flights to the West Coast and London operations.
The airline said the new routes were motivated by the arrival of the third brand new Embraer 195-E2 jet into its fleet.
Chairman of Air Peace, Allen Onyema, noted that the Federal Government had allotted about 26 destinations to Air Peace, some of which will become operational with the arrival of more new equipment.
He added that Air Peace will soon be connecting Duala, Senegal, Congo and the West Coast.
“We are still processing documents for the London route. Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) will help us push further. We have also applied for China and India too. We have already had seven flights to China and 22 to India already. All of these are markets waiting for Air Peace,” Onyema said.
The medium-range equipment is the third of 13 expected from Embraer in Brazil, with another 17 likely to follow the firm order.
The Director-General of NCAA, Capt. Musa Nuhu, had described the arrival of the brand new aircraft as a milestone and a paradigm shift for the industry.
Nuhu commended Air Peace chairman not just for investing in a new aircraft, but picking the right type for the market.
“The Embraer aircraft is the right aircraft; it breaks even with low passenger figures. Your maintenance and operational costs are low.
“Another factor is that the new aircraft is absolutely great for the environment; it does less noise and less pollution. I am really proud that I am DG when this paradigm shift is happening. We are all here to work together to grow the industry and we have to give kudos to the entrepreneur. Without such people, all this will not be possible. We need entrepreneurs like Onyema,” Nuhu said.
Air Peace airline, in April 2019, placed a record order for 13 brand new Embraer 195-E2 planes. The order comprises purchase rights for another 17 E195-E2 jets. The first and second arrived in January and March, respectively.
Key Industry Players to Brainstorm on Aviation Sector Development
Meanwhile key industry players in the Aviation sector are gearing to meet at a conference organised by the League of Airport and Aviation Correspondents (LAAC) to brainstorm on the Development of the Sector.
The conference, billed for July 28, 2021, will table management, policy and regulation issues affecting the industry.
While the Ministry of Aviation has pledged to be part of the event, all the aviation agencies, including Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Accident Investigation Bureau, Nigeria (AIB-N) and the Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Zaria, have also shown commitment to participate.
Director-General of the NCAA, Capt Musa Nuhu, in a statement, affirmed its agency’s support and endorsement of the conference.
“We will continue to partner with LAAC for a successful outing. This is in line with our resolve to invest in projects that could elicit solutions to the myriad of challenges confronting air travel in the face of COVID-19 pandemic,” Nuhu said.
The conference and awards, in its 25th edition, will host over 250 aviation professionals across agencies, international and domestic airlines, aviation support services, travel sellers and buyers and captains of the aviation industry.
Chairman of the Conference Committee, Chinedu Eze, said top aviation personalities would deliver insightful papers on issues affecting the industry.