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$400bn Investment in New Refinery Projects Required in Africa — Kragha

Mr. Anibor O. Kragha, is the Executive Secretary of African Refiners and Distribution Association (ARDA), after serving as the President of the Association from March 2019 to March 2020. Prior to his roles at ARDA, Mr. Kragha had worked as the Chief Operating Officer, Refining & Petrochemicals of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) from April 2016 to July 2019, and as NNPC Group General Manager, Treasury from September 2015 to March 2016. In this engaging Interview with VALUECHAIN, Kragha, speaks on how ARDA is championing the promotion of the adoption of clean fuels, the development of an actionable framework for deploying LPG investments across Africa and the need for a robust discussion on factors to be considered in developing Africa’s unique energy transition roadmap. Excerpts:

How has it been for you so far at the helm of arguably the only pan-African organisation for the African downstream?

I have enjoyed my time at ARDA. As the ARDA President from March 2019 to March 2020, I focused primarily on promoting the adoption of the ARDA AFRI Clean Fuels Roadmap (AFRI-6 or 10 ppm Sulphur gasoline and gasoil/diesel by 2030) by the African Union Commission (AUC).  I am pleased that these efforts have progressed significantly and we are presently awaiting endorsement of the Roadmap by the AUC Specialised Technical Committee (STC) of Energy Ministers. Thereafter, the final step is the endorsement by the AUC Permanent Representative Committee (PRC) after which the roadmap will be adopted.  We are very optimistic that this will happen soon.

As the ARDA Executive Secretary, I have given priority to enhancing the ARDA Work Groups (WGs) by expanding the number from five to seven – adding Sustainable Financing (SF) and LPG WGs – to promote the sharing of best practices amongst ARDA Members, Sponsors and other key stakeholders. The seven WGs are Refining & Specifications, Storage & Distribution, Regulation, HSE & Quality (HSEQ), Human Capital, LPG and Sustainable Financing (SF).  The SF WG, which I lead, is focused on enabling ARDA Members to secure cost-effective project financing to upgrade their refineries to produce cleaner fuels and to execute carbon abatement projects. The LPG WG is dedicated to the development of an actionable framework for deploying LPG investments across Africa. ARDA is a founding Member of the LPG4SDG7 Coalition which includes key LPG industry players like the Global LPG Partnership, World LPG Association, Clean Cooking Alliance, Shell Foundation, banks like Standard Bank and Societe Generale and traders like Vitol and Trafigura.

The current global Energy Transition movement has necessitated ARDA’s creation of a new Energy Transition Taskforce focused on developing a consistent strategy for building resilience and sustainability within the changing oil & gas operating landscape.   This taskforce will leverage ARDA’s extensive network of Members and partners, institutional knowledge and drive thought leadership to ensure a cohesive energy transition plan and coordinated project development process developed to the highest bankability standards. The benefits of such a robust, sustainable African Downstream Energy Transition Plan are numerous for African refiners, marketers, distributors and regulators, as well as capital providers and key players in the cleaner energy space, particularly LPG for Clean Cooking.

You have been driving a strong narrative that oil will continue to play a vital role in addressing increasing energy demand and accelerating socio-economic growth. Does this mean there is no cause for alarm for Africa even as alternative green energy sources continue to expand in other continents?

The IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2019 clearly indicates that Africa’s energy demands are going to rise by ~45% between now and 2040. In addition, despite renewables growing about 12 to 15 times the current levels, fossil fuels will still form about 60% of Africa’s primary energy mix. 

As a result, African countries like Nigeria will still have a market for their fossil fuel-related petroleum products, but the focus should be on investments to deliver the “Refinery of the Future” which integrates refining & petrochemicals complexes that produce cleaner, higher-value products (like gasoline and aviation fuel) and petrochemicals with lower environmental footprint(s).  An example of this is the soon-to-be completed 650 kbd Dangote Refinery, and other refinery and petrochemical projects being built in Algeria and Egypt.

African countries should also focus on implementation of a unique African Energy Transition Roadmap that focuses on cleaner fuels and LPG for clean cooking in the near-term and modern energy solutions like renewables in the longer term.  The roadmap should also include the required storage and distribution infrastructure investments and policies for implementation.

African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) held its virtual ARDA WEEK 2021 between October 11 and 13 with the theme “Developing Africa’s Downstream Energy Transition Plan”. Tell us more about the week and the choice of the theme.

ARDA has historically held an annual conference during which key global stakeholders in the downstream sector debate on topical issues.  Over the last two years, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, ARDA has had to hold virtual conferences which have also been very successful in driving leadership on key issues.

With the global energy trends pushing away from fossil fuels towards renewables, starting with the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Report in May this year and the upcoming UN Climate Change COP-26 conference in November this year, ARDA felt it was very important to highlight the need for a robust discussion on factors to be considered in developing Africa’s unique energy transition roadmap. 

Basically, energy transition is not a “one-size-fits-all” affair and it was necessary to provide ARDA Members and key stakeholders a forum to engage on key factors for consideration on Africa’s energy journey over the next few decades.

The event was expected to identify initiatives towards the implementation of actionable roadmap to effectively transition Africa’s current primary energy mix to a more sustainable and lower-carbon footprint. Did it live up to this expectation?

This 2021 Virtual ARDA Week was a resounding success.  The event was headlined by top African and global leaders and key industry experts providing their perspectives the global energy transition and its implications for Africa.

Top industry leaders led by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General; H.E. Thomas Camara, Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy of Cote d’Ivoire; NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of African Energy Chamber; Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol; Adrian Binks, Chairman and CEO of Argus Media, Temitope Shonubi, Founder and Executive Director of Sahara Group and Kimball Chen, Executive Chairman, Global LPG Partnership shared their views on key investments that must be made in the Africa Downstream sector, including over $400 billion of this investment would go into new refinery projects and expansions of existing units, programs to promote adoption of LPG as a cleaner cooking fuel, use of natural gas for power generation and need for development of bioLPG projects as part of the urgent actions were required from stakeholders in the energy industry across the continent over the next two decades to ensure the development of a unique, inclusive energy transition plan.

Other experts from IPIECA, UN Environment Program (UNEP), International Energy Agency (IEA), S&P Global Platts, Honeywell UOP, Axens and TechnipEnergies shared their views on how global energy transition trends would impact Africa and the technology solutions available to promote a sustainable energy transition.  In addition, conference delegates were exposed to various key options and considerations for developing a Sustainable Finance Plan for Africa to secure energy transition funding from experts like Vitol, Africa Finance Corporation and Standard Bank.  ARDA and Aldersmead, its EU-based financial advisory parner, shared a Resource Mobilization Plan with frameworks to enable ARDA Members secure near-term project financing for their refinery upgrade, carbon abatement, energy efficiency improvement and other energy transition projects.

Fundamentally, the prevailing takeaway was that there is no “one size fits all” energy transition solution and reducing emissions must have multiple paths whereby key stakeholders must work together to address Africa’s energy challenges and design a personalized roadmap against the backdrop of a growing population with increasing energy needs.

ARDA has been working with the African Union (AU) on the adoption of a harmonised, Pan-African cleaner fuel specifications (10 ppm sulphur for gasoline and diesel by 2030). What has this collaboration yielded so far?

The ARDA and African Union Commission (AUC) collaboration has gone very well and significant strides have been made, Together, we held several stakeholder validation workshops and progressed through the various sib-committee endorsements.  Presently, we are awaiting endorsement of the Roadmap by the AUC Specialized Technical Committee (STC) of Energy Ministers.  The AUC-STC Meeting was originally scheduled for June this year, but was postponed and should take place before end of this year.  Thereafter, the final step is the endorsement by the AUC Permanent Representative Committee (PRC) after which the roadmap will be adopted.  We are very optimistic that this will happen soon.

What are the factors that may likely impact the implementation of the Pan-African cleaner fuel specification agreements and how can the obstacles be addressed?

In my view, the clear impediments to implementation of the AFRI Clean Fuels Roadmap, which promotes harmonized, pan-African cleaner fuel specifications are lack of agreed standards and access to funding to upgrade the refineries and associated infrastructure to produce and transport these cleaner fuels.

Currently, African countries have eleven (11) different levels of permissible Sulphur content for gasoil (diesel) ranging from 10 ppm to 10,000 ppm.  For gasoline, there are twelve (12) different levels of Sulphur content ranging from 10 ppm to 2,500 ppm. This lack of uniformity inhibits supply chain optimization and potential economies of scale and results in higher costs to consumers.  In addition, such non-uniformity encourages illegal smuggling and product adulteration activities with further adverse effects.

A review of financing allocated to the fossil fuel industry and green projects since the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, shows a gradual decline in funds allocated to fossil fuel projects along with a corresponding rise in funds allocated to green projects.  In fact, 2021 may be the year that a tipping point is reached where green projects finally receive more funding than the fossil fuels industry. ARDA is advocating that its Members should focus on ensuring all projects are commercially viable and have a definite ESG (Emissions Reduction, Social Development and Governance) focus. 

Projects like refinery upgrades to produce lower sulphur, cleaner fuels should qualify as ESG projects and the ARDA Sustainable Financing Work Group, which I lead, is focused on implementing a Sustainable Finance Plan for Africa that incorporates funding from traditional sources like local and international commercial banks, but also an increased focus on alternative sources like Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), Vendors & EPC Companies and Commodity Traders to avail ARDA Members of this much needed funding.

The Petroleum Industry Act is widely believed to be a game changer for Nigeria’s downstream oil sector. What are your thoughts on the new law as it affects the downstream?

I believe that passing of the PIA bodes very well for the Nigerian Downstream sector. A key achievement is the creation of the new Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency to really coordinate and promote coordination across the sector. This coordination should enable the sector to ultimately truly thrive over time.

With 1.2m b/d of new capacity half of it accounted for by the 650k/d Dangote refinery in addition to several modular projects, do you see Nigeria becoming Africa’s refining hub in the next 5 years?

The IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2019 clearly indicates that Africa’s energy demands are going to rise by ~45% between now and 2040. In addition, despite renewables growing about 12 to 15 times the current levels, fossil fuels will still form about 60% of Africa’s primary energy mix over that same period.

As a result, African countries will still have a market for fossil fuel-related petroleum products and Nigeria, with its robust projected future refining capacity should be a net exporter of petroleum, products.

That said, the focus should be on investments to deliver the “Refinery of the Future” which integrates refining & petrochemicals complexes that produce cleaner, higher-value products (like gasoline and aviation fuel) and petrochemicals with lower environmental footprint(s).  An example of this is the soon-to-be completed 650 kbd Dangote Refinery, which when completed will deliver cleaner fuels and petrochemicals that can supply the continent.

As a leader of ARDA, what is your opinion on the issue of refined product smuggling across the border of some African countries such as Nigeria?

The primary issue is the lack of harmonization of product specifications and tariffs across various African countries.  AfCFTA will promote harmonization of petroleum product specifications and associated tariffs, taxes, etc.  This will reduce incentives for smuggling, product adulteration and segregation of value chains which will ultimately impact the end-consumer adversely.

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